Originally posted on May 27, 2006.

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We have all heard about how Iran is defying the United States and the will of the rest of the world by pursuing nuclear technology. The Iranians and their insane president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have been saying that they want technologies that are legally due to them under the NPT, the treaty restricting the spread of nuclear weapons technology, and they accuse the United States among others, of trying to rob them of that technology.

The United States on the other hand believes that Iran is really after nuclear weapons, and they bring some evidence to that effect.

First, the US is following the advice of that old saying: "Fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me." This is because back during the Clinton administration, the United States got involved with talks to limit the nuclear aspirations of North Korea. These were the talks headed by former President Jimmy Carter. The North Koreans signed a deal limiting their development of nuclear technology, and it was only during the Bush administration that the North Koreans turned around and said basically, "Not only did we not mean what we said when we signed the treaty, but we already have nuclear weapons."

So, the US is right to be skeptical of Iran's assertions that they only want peaceful nuclear technology. The Iranians too have played the game of "hide the nut" when it comes to their facilities. They unveiled the Natanz site during their announcements on the subject, but there's an associated facility at Bushehr. Who knows what other facilities the Iranians might have.

Secondly, the Iranians have obtained a manual on how to design shaped charges using uranium materials. The IAEA said that this report had no peaceful use...it's used to tell people how to build and improve nuclear warheads.

However, things are not as rosy for the Iranians as it might look. It is true that sanctions are not likely. Both Russia and China will oppose such things in the UN, probably to the point of vetoing any such resolutions that come down the road. So it looks like Iran is in a good position to negotiate for what they want.

For Iran, that's where the good news stops.

While it looks from the outside that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has monolithic support, this is not the case. The Iranian economy has not done well, despite promises made during the last presidential campaign. There are mixed signals being sent on social and cultural rules, and students at the nation's universities are protesting the proposed stationing of police or soldiers on the campuses...some students have taken to wearing T-shirts saying "Our schools are not garrisons." At the same time, while satellite receivers are outlawed, they are proliferating like weeds in the cities of Iran, since no one enforces the restriction, and the reason the conservative clerics are trying to clamp down on social interactions is because the youth of Iran are probably the most liberal thinking people in the Middle East.

On the nuclear issue, while there is support for the development of nuclear power, and while there is some support for Iran to join the nuclear club, that support is not universal, and some people also say that antagonizing the United States is not wise.

Despite the religious beliefs of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who believes that he should do what he can to bring about the return of the missing mahdi (and this can only happen through an apocalyptic horror), those portions of Iranian sociaty that are not insane religious fanatics are actually quite sophisticated and intelligent, and I think that should push come to shove, they would act to preserve their nation.

The United States and our allies should put good sums of money into backing the underground democratic movement in Iran, and we should come up with other things that we can be doing to quietly be working against the leadership of Iran.

However, the Iranian democratic movement should take the lead on this. We have admitted that military force is not our primary option, and economic sanctions are probably not going to happen. Therefore, the only way that we can resolve this issue is to have the leadership of the country, including Mahmoud Ahmadinejad removed from power.

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John B.
Blog Guy

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